Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
